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How to read a checklist and the odds on the box
The checklist is the manufacturer's list of everything in a set. The odds tell you how often a certain kind of card turns up, and on sports cards they are printed on the pack or the box. The most common misunderstanding is that the odds apply to one specific card. They apply to the category. If there are a hundred different autographed cards and the odds are one in twenty-four packs, the chance of getting the exact player you want is one in two thousand four hundred.
The checklist
A checklist lists every card in the set and normally includes:
- Card number and subject. The number you find at the bottom of the card.
- Subset. Which part of the release the card belongs to, meaning the base set or an insert set with its own theme.
- Parallels per card. Which colour versions exist and how many copies were printed of each.
- Autographed cards. Which people signed and in which subsets.
- Markings for cards printed in smaller numbers, often given as short print or super short print.
The checklist is usually published before or around the release and is the only way to know in advance what you can pull from a box. It is also used to catalogue a collection and to check whether a card you've been offered even exists in the form the seller claims.
The odds
Odds are written as a ratio between cards and packs. One in twenty-four means that the type turns up on average in one of twenty-four packs, counted across the whole production run. It is an average, not a promise about your box.
| 1:24 packs | On average one card of that type per twenty-four packs. |
|---|---|
| 1 per box | Guaranteed. If it says that, there is one in every box. |
| 1:3 boxes | Rarer than one per box. On average two out of three boxes don't have the card at all. |
| /99 | Numbered card, ninety-nine copies in total worldwide. |
| 1/1 | One single copy. |
Do the maths yourself
Take the number of packs in the box and divide by the odds number. If the box has twenty-four packs and the odds are one in twenty-four, you can expect about one card per box. If the box has twelve packs and the same odds, you can expect one every other box.
If you want to know the chance of a specific card, you also need to know how many different cards are in that category. That information is in the checklist, not in the odds, which is why the two are read together.
A guarantee is not the same as odds
If it says the box contains an autographed card, that is a guarantee and applies to every box. If it gives a ratio, that is probability and applies over time. The guarantee also only says that the card is there, not who it is of or what it is worth, and most autographed cards in a set are of names that don't drive the price.
Hobby and retail have different odds
The same set normally has completely different odds in the two channels. The hobby box has better odds on autographs and memorabilia, while the retail box has its own parallels that aren't in hobby. In practice this means the odds on a blaster, a mega box or a value box can't be compared with the odds on a hobby box or a display of the same set: they are different products with different contents. So always compare odds within the same channel. Read more about hobby or retail.
What the odds don't tell you
- They say nothing about which card you get, only which type.
- They say nothing about value. A rare card of the wrong name can be worth little.
- They can't be used to work out whether a box pays off, since the value lies in who the card is of.
- They apply to the production run as a whole. Your box can deviate either way.
Where to find the information
On sports cards the odds are printed on the back of the pack or the side of the box, and are also in the manufacturer's sell sheet. Pokémon and most other card games don't publish odds, and there all figures are based on collectors' own counts. The checklist is published by the manufacturer and shared by collector sites. For sports cards the information is therefore public and shouldn't need to be guessed.
Worked example
| The box has | 24 packs |
|---|---|
| The odds say | Autographed card 1 in 24 packs |
| Expected per box | About one |
| Number of different autographs in the set | 100 |
| Chance of a specific player | About 1 in 2,400 packs |
It is the last row that explains why it is almost always cheaper to buy the card you want than to open packs until it turns up.
Frequently asked questions
- Where are the odds? On sports cards they are on the back of the pack or the side of the box, sometimes in the manufacturer's sell sheet. Pokémon and most other card games don't publish odds.
- Do the odds apply to my box? They apply to the production run as a whole. Your box can deviate either way.
- What is the difference between a guarantee and odds? A guarantee applies to every box, odds are probability over time.
- Why do the odds differ between hobby and retail? They are two different products with different contents.
- Is the checklist available before the release? Usually yes, the manufacturer publishes it in advance.
See also the rarity levels and where the hits sit in the pack.
How to read the odds, step by step
- Find the odds box. On sports cards it is on the back of the pack or the side of the box.
- Read what the odds apply to. Almost always a whole category, not a single card.
- Read the denominator correctly. "1 in 24" means per pack, not per box, unless stated otherwise.
- Tell a guarantee from odds. A guarantee applies to every box, the odds are an average across the whole print run.
- Divide by the number of cards in the category to get the chance of a specific card.
- Compare with the price of the card. It is almost always cheaper to buy it.
Shop: sports cards and Pokémon at Bangerpack.
Written by those of us who run Bangerpack. Range and prices change continuously. What applies when you read this is shown in the category.
